PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN DI KOTA BANDUNG MENGGUNAKAN SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA)

    Nadila Saskia Rahmadania, - and Bambang Avip Priatna Martadiputra, - and Lukman, - (2025) PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN DI KOTA BANDUNG MENGGUNAKAN SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA). S1 thesis, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia.

    Abstract

    Metode Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) merupakan gabungan dari metode Autoregressive dan metode Moving Average, di mana SARIMA merupakan metode untuk peramalan data yang memiliki unsur musiman, seperti curah hujan. Langkah-langkah yang perlu dilakukan adalah identifikasi model, penaksiran parameter model sementara, pemeriksaan diagnostik, pemilihan model terbaik dan peramalan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memperoleh model terbaik dan hasil peramalan curah hujan di Kota Bandung. Adapun hasil penelitian diperoleh bahwa model terbaik untuk melakukan peramalan adalah SARIMA(4,1,2) (1,1,0)12 dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 12,73%. Hal ini berarti model memiliki kemampuan peramalan yang baik. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method is a combination of the Autoregressive and Moving Average methods, where SARIMA is used for forecasting data that contains seasonal elements, such as rainfall. The steps that need to be taken include model identification, parameter temporal model assessment, diagnostic checking, selection of the best model, and forecasting. This study aims to obtain the best model and the rainfall forecast results for the city of Bandung. The results of the study show that the best model for forecasting is SARIMA(4,1,2) (1,1,0)12, with a MAPE value of 12.73%. This indicates that the model has good forecasting ability.

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    Official URL: https://repository.upi.edu
    Item Type: Thesis (S1)
    Additional Information: https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=new_profile&hl=en ID SINTA Dosen Pembimbing : Bambang Avip Priatna Martadiputra : 6124136 Lukman : 6675529
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Curah Hujan, MAPE, Peramalan dan SARIMA. Forecasting, MAPE, Rainfall and SARIMA.
    Subjects: L Education > L Education (General)
    Q Science > QA Mathematics
    Q Science > QC Physics
    Divisions: Fakultas Pendidikan Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam > Program Studi Matematika - S1 > Program Studi Matematika (non kependidikan)
    Depositing User: Nadila Saskia Rahmadania
    Date Deposited: 15 Sep 2025 01:58
    Last Modified: 15 Sep 2025 01:58
    URI: http://repository.upi.edu/id/eprint/139178

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