Rifah, Fitri Nurma (2013) PENERAPAN MODEL FUNGSI TRANSFER MULTIVARIAT UNTUK MERAMALKAN JUMLAH KEDATANGAN WISATAWAN ASING KE INDONESIA. S1 thesis, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia.
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Abstract
Pada skripsi ini mengkaji tentang Model Fungsi Transfer Multivariat yang merupakan gabungan dari karakteristik analisis regresi berganda dengan karateristik runtun waktu ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). Model fungsi transfer variabel input lebih dari dua runtun waktu disebut dengan model fungsi transfer multivariate. Prosedur pembentukan model fungsi transfer multivariate melalui dua tahap, yaitu pembentukan model fungsi transfer tunggal dari masing-masing input, baru dilakukan pembentukan model fungsi transfer secara simultan dari semua variabel. Didalam skripsi ini dipaparkan penerapan model fungsi transfer multivariate pada peramalan kedatangan wisatawan asing ke Indonesia. Data yang digunakan mulai dari tahun 2008 sampai 2013 dengan variabel input bandara Soekarno-Hatta, Ngurah Rai, Polonia dan Batam. Berdasarkan model fungsi transfer yang didapat, hasil ramalan kedatangan wisatawan asing ke Indonesia pada tahun 2013-2014 cenderung mengalami kenaikan. Kata Kunci: Time Series, Fungsi Transfer, Multivariat, Wisatawan This thesis examines the Multivariate Transfer Function Model which is a combination of the characteristics of the multiple regression analysis and of time series ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). Transfer function model with input variables over the two time series is called multivariate transfer function models. Procedures of constructing multivariate transfer function model through two steps, that is construct a single transfer function model of each input, then construct a transfer function model of all variables simultaneously. In this thesis, it is presented application of multivariate transfer function model in forecasting of the foreign tourists arrival to Indonesia. Data used is begin from 2008 until 2013 with input variables are Soekarno - Hatta airport, Ngurah Rai, Polonia and Batam. Based on the transfer function model obtained, the results of forecasting of foreign tourist arrivals to Indonesia in 2013-2014 tended increasing. Keywords : Time Series , Transfer Function , Multivariate , Travelers
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) |
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| Subjects: | Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia > Fakultas Pendidikan Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam > Jurusan Pendidikan Matematika > Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Pendidikan Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam > Jurusan Pendidikan Matematika > Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika |
| Depositing User: | DAM STAF Editor |
| Date Deposited: | 06 Nov 2013 04:06 |
| Last Modified: | 06 Nov 2013 04:06 |
| URI: | http://repository.upi.edu/id/eprint/2881 |
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