ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI UTANG LUAR NEGERI DI INDONESIA TAHUN 1970-2023

    Isna Herliani Nugraha, - and Disman, - and Siti Parhah, - (2025) ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI UTANG LUAR NEGERI DI INDONESIA TAHUN 1970-2023. S1 thesis, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia.

    Abstract

    Utang luar negeri Indonesia yang terus berfluktuasi dan meningkat menjadi latar belakang penelitian ini. Penelitian bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh defisit tabungan–investasi, defisit transaksi berjalan, dan defisit anggaran terhadap utang luar negeri Indonesia periode 1970–2023, dengan suku bunga dunia (The Fed) sebagai variabel kontrol. Berdasarkan teori Three Gap Model, penelitian ini menggunakan analisis Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Hasil menunjukkan ketiga defisit berpengaruh signifikan dalam jangka pendek, namun tidak ada hubungan jangka panjang, sementara suku bunga dunia tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Implikasinya, utang luar negeri Indonesia responsif terhadap ketidakseimbangan jangka pendek, sehingga relevansi Three Gap Model lebih kuat pada jangka pendek. Indonesia’s external debt, which continues to fluctuate and increase, forms the background of this study. This research aims to analyze the effects of the savings–investment gap, trade gap, and fiscal gap on Indonesia’s external debt during the period 1970–2023, with the world interest rate (The Fed) as a control variable. Based on the Three Gap Model, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The results show that the three gaps have a significant effect in the short run, while no long-run relationship is found, and the world interest rate is not significant. The implication is that Indonesia’s external debt is responsive to short-term imbalances, indicating that the relevance of the Three Gap Model is stronger in the short run.

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    Official URL: https://repository.upi.edu/
    Item Type: Thesis (S1)
    Additional Information: https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=new_profile&hl=id ID SINTA Dosen Pembimbing: Disman: 5991816 Siti Parhah: 5993429
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Utang Luar Negeri, Defisit Tabungan-Investasi, Defisit Transaksi Berjalan, Defisit Anggaran, Suku Bunga Dunia, Three Gap Model, ARDL External Debt, Savings–Investment Gap, Trade Gap, Fiscal Gap, World Interest Rate, Three Gap Model, ARDL
    Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
    H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
    L Education > L Education (General)
    Divisions: Fakultas Pendidikan Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Pendidikan Ekonomi
    Depositing User: Isna Herliani Nugraha
    Date Deposited: 29 Oct 2025 09:13
    Last Modified: 29 Oct 2025 09:13
    URI: http://repository.upi.edu/id/eprint/140458

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