SIMULASI PERAMALAN PENGADAAN MINYAK TRAFO DENGAN METODE CROSTON DAN SBA DI PT PLN (PERSERO) UPT BANDUNG

    Khansa Nabila, - and Mumu Komaro, - and Saskia Kanisaa Puspanikan, - (2025) SIMULASI PERAMALAN PENGADAAN MINYAK TRAFO DENGAN METODE CROSTON DAN SBA DI PT PLN (PERSERO) UPT BANDUNG. S1 thesis, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia.

    Abstract

    PT PLN (Persero) UPT Bandung mengalami ketidaksesuaian antara jumlah persediaan dan kebutuhan aktual minyak trafo. Rata-rata kelebihan stok mencapai 2.288 liter per tahun dan menyebabkan potensi kerugian sebesar Rp114.674.560. Permasalahan ini muncul karena belum diterapkannya sistem peramalan yang terstruktur dalam proses pengadaan minyak trafo. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah kuantitatif deskriptif dengan tujuan mengetahui pola permintaan minyak trafo dan membandingkan hasil peramalan kebutuhan minyak trafo menggunakan metode Croston dan Syntetos–Boylan Approximation (SBA). Simulasi peramalan dilakukan dilanjutkan dengan pengujian akurasi menggunakan Mean Absolute Error (MAE), U-Theil, Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) dan validasi menggunakan grafik kontrol individu. Pola permintaan minyak trafo bersifat intermittent dengan lonjakan pada periode tertentu. MAE SBA sebesar 1.143,33 lebih rendah dibanding Croston 1.162,20, MASE SBA 0,81 lebih rendah dibanding Croston 0,83, U-Theil pada Croston 0,73 dan SBA 0,75. Uji validasi memperlihatkan bahwa metode SBA memiliki hasil peramalan yang berada dalam rentang kendali dengan nilai LCL 0 dan UCL 3.962,45.Temuan penelitian menunjukkan bahwa metode SBA lebih baik daripada Croston dalam peramalan untuk permintaan intermittent serta dapat digunakan sebagai acuan dalam perencanaan pengadaan minyak trafo yang lebih efisien. PT PLN (Persero) UPT Bandung experienced a mismatch between the amount of inventory and the actual need for transformer oil. The average excess stock reached 2,288 liters per year and caused a potential loss of Rp114,674,560. This problem arose because a structured forecasting system had not been implemented in the transformer oil procurement process. The research method used was descriptive quantitative with the aim of determining the pattern of transformer oil demand and comparing the results of transformer oil demand forecasting using the Croston and Syntetos–Boylan Approximation (SBA) methods. Forecasting simulations were carried out followed by accuracy testing using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), U-Theil, Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) and validation using individual control charts. The pattern of transformer oil demand was intermittent with spikes at certain periods. MAE SBA 1,143.33 is lower than Croston 1,162.20, MASE SBA 0.81 is lower than Croston 0.83, U-Theil on Croston 0.73, and SBA 0.75. Validation test shows that the SBA method has forecasting results that are within the control range with LCL 0 and UCL 3,962.45. The research findings show that the SBA method is better than Croston in intermittent demand forecasting and can be used as a reference in planning more efficient transformer oil procurement.

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    Official URL: https://repository.upi.edu/
    Item Type: Thesis (S1)
    Additional Information: https://scholar.google.com/citationshl=en&user=SjeqI7gAAAAJ ID SINTA Dosen Pembimbing: Mumu Komaro: 5993878 Saskia Kanisaa Puspanikan: 6745852
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Croston, MAE, Peramalan Persediaan, SBA Croston, Forecasting Inventory, MAE, SBA
    Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
    Q Science > QA Mathematics
    T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
    Divisions: Fakultas Pendidikan Teknik dan Industri > Teknik Logistik - S1
    Depositing User: Khansa Nabila
    Date Deposited: 15 Sep 2025 07:22
    Last Modified: 15 Sep 2025 07:22
    URI: http://repository.upi.edu/id/eprint/138652

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