Adam Daris Ryadhi, - and Siti Parhah, - and Yana Rohmana, - (2025) TRANSISI DEMOGRAFI DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: Bukti Empiris dari Indonesia Menggunakan Pendekatan GMM. S1 thesis, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia.
Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji secara komprehensif mengenai pengaruh transisi demografi pada pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia selama periode bonus demografi 2015-2024. Penelitian ini menggunakan variabel pertumbuhan penduduk dan rasio ketergantungan sebagai proksi atas transisi demografi, serta tenaga kerja, modal manusia, dan investasi sebagai instrumen utama bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi. Metode Sys-GMM digunakan untuk menganalisis dinamika data panel dari 34 provinsi di Indonesia serta untuk mengatasi masalah endogenitas. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan penduduk berpengaruh negatif pada pertumbuhan ekonomi, sementara rasio ketergantungan, tenaga kerja, dan modal manusia tidak memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan. Hanya investasi yang terbukti berpengaruh positif pada pertumbuhan ekonomi. Temuan ini mengimplikasikan bahwa potensi bonus demografi tidak secara otomatis akan mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi tanpa adanya dukungan kualitas sumber daya manusia dan ketenagakerjaan yang efektif. Selama bonus demografi berlangsung, investasi menjadi faktor kunci yang mampu mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi dan mencapai visi Indonesia emas 2045. This study aims to comprehensively analyze the effect of the demographic transition on economic growth in Indonesia during the demographic dividend period (2015-2024). This study used population growth and dependency ratio variables as proxies for the demographic transition, along with labor, human capital, and investment as the main instruments for economic growth. The Sys- GMM method is employed to analyze the dynamics of panel data from 34 provinces in Indonesia and to address the endogeneity issue. The results indicate that population growth has a negative impact on economic growth, whereas the dependency ratio, labor, and human capital have no significant effect. However, only investment proved to have a positive impact on economic growth. These findings imply that the potential demographic dividend will not automatically boost economic growth in the absence of effective support for human capital and labor quality. During the demographic dividend, investment is a key factor that can drive economic growth and achieve the golden Indonesia 2045 vision.
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| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Profil Google Scholar Penulis: https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=id&user=BnVtL4YAAAAJ ID SINTA dosen pembimbing: Siti Parhah: 5993429 Yana Rohmana: 5993436 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Bonus Demografi, Transisi Demografi, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Indonesia, GMM. Demographic Dividend, Demographic Transition, Economic Growth, Indonesia, GMM. |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Pendidikan Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Pendidikan Ekonomi |
| Depositing User: | Adam Daris Ryadhi |
| Date Deposited: | 29 Aug 2025 07:55 |
| Last Modified: | 29 Aug 2025 07:55 |
| URI: | http://repository.upi.edu/id/eprint/135673 |
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