IMPLEMENTASI METODE TIME SERIES UNTUK MERAMALKAN PENJUALAN DAN PERSEDIAAN BAHAN BAKU PADA JALAKOTEKU

Amelia Nitami, - and Agus Sudono, - and Purna Hindayani, - (2024) IMPLEMENTASI METODE TIME SERIES UNTUK MERAMALKAN PENJUALAN DAN PERSEDIAAN BAHAN BAKU PADA JALAKOTEKU. S1 thesis, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia.

Abstract

Jalakoteku tergolong ke dalam jenis industri pariwisata dibidang jasa makanan yang berpusat di Kota Bandung sejak 2021. Jalakoteku menyajikan kudapan khas Majalengka yakni jalakotek. Kondisi penjualan di Jalakoteku cenderung fluktuatif dengan pola data penjualan acak. Kondisi tersebut membuat peramalan penjualan jalakotek varian ayam rica-rica meleset rata-rata 31% dalam 10 pekan terakhir. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui metode peramalan time series yang paling sesuai diimplementasikan pada Jalakoteku, mengetahui peramalan penjualan dan persediaan bahan baku, serta pengaruh implementasi time series terhadap efisiensi biaya di Jalakoteku. Peramalan penjualan pada penelitian ini menggunakan metode time series yakni moving average, weight moving average, exponential smoothing, holt dan winter. Hasil peramalan penjualan digunakan untuk memproyeksikan kebutuhan bahan baku menggunakan analisis bill of material (BOM). Penelitian ini menggunakan metode deskriptif kuantitatif dengan sumber data sekunder, yakni data historis penjualan selama 70 minggu serta bill of material jalakotek ayam rica-rica. Teknik analisis data menggunakan Minitab 21 dan POM-QM for Windows 5. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, metode exponential smoothing memiliki kesalahan peramalan terkecil yakni MAD = 270, MSE = 123815 dan MAPE = 18%. Metode ini meramalkan penjualan jalakotek ayam rica-rica di minggu ke-71 sebanyak 1255 pcs. Resep standar jalakotek dalam satu kali periode produksi dapat menghasilkan 283 pcs jalakotek varian ayam rica-rica. Oleh karena itu, untuk memenuhi kebutuhan bahan baku di minggu ke-71, maka setiap item bahan baku dikalikan 4.4 kali lipat dari standar resep. Implementasi metode peramalan time series dapat mengefisiensikan biaya perusahaan dengan meminimalisir kehilangan opportunity cost dan saving cost sebesar Rp.3.102.479 per 10 minggu. Jika hal ini konsisten dilakukan, maka peluang peningkatan pendapatan Jalakoteku yakni sebesar Rp.16.132.891/tahun. Oleh karena itu, metode peramalan time series berpengaruh terhadap efisiensi biaya perusahaan dibandingkan metode peramalan yang saat ini digunakan oleh perusahaan.

Jalakoteku is classified as a tourism industry in the food service sector, based in Bandung City since 2021. Jalakoteku offers a traditional Majalengka snack known as jalakotek. Sales conditions at Jalakoteku tend to fluctuate with random pattern of sales. This condition causes Jalakoteku's sales forecast for jalakotek ayam rica-rica variant to miss an average of 31% in the last 10 weeks. This study aims to determine the most appropriate time series forecasting method to be implemented at Jalakoteku, forecast sales and inventory requirements, and assess the impact of implementing time series forecasting on cost efficiency at Jalakoteku. The sales forecasting in this study employs time series methods, including moving average, weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, holt, and winter. The sales forecast results are used to project the raw material needs through bill of material (BOM) analysis. This study uses a descriptive quantitative method with secondary data sources, namely historical sales data for 70 weeks and bill of material for jalakotek ayam rica-rica. The data analysis technique utilizes Minitab 21 and POM-QM for Windows 5. Based on the study's results, the exponential smoothing method has the smallest forecasting error, with MAD = 270, MSE = 123815, and MAPE = 18%. This method forecasts sales of jalakotek ayam rica-rica for week 71 at 1,255 pieces. The standard recipe for jalakotek in a single production period can yield 283 pieces of jalakotek ayam rica-rica. Therefore, to meet the raw material requirements in week 71, each ingredient is multiplied by 4.4 times the standard recipe. Implementing time series forecasting methods can increase the company's cost efficiency by minimizing loss of opportunity costs and saving costs amounting to IDR 3.102.479 per 10 weeks. If this is consistently applied, the potential increase in Jalakoteku's revenue could reach IDR 16.132.891 per year. Therefore, the time series forecasting method has an impact on the company's cost efficiency compared to the forecasting methods currently used by the company.

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Item Type:	Thesis (S1)
Additional Information:	https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=new_profile&hl=en ID Sinta Dosen Pembimbing: Agus Sudono: 6134240 Purna Hindayani: 6745708
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Pariwisata, peramalan penjualan, metode time series, persediaan bahan baku, efisiensi biaya. Tourism, sales forecasting, time series methods, raw material inventory, cost efficiency.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management H Social Sciences > HF Commerce L Education > L Education (General)
Divisions:	Fakultas Pendidikan Ilmu Pengetahuan Sosial > Manajemen Industri Katering
Depositing User:	Amelia Nitami
Date Deposited:	28 Apr 2025 07:04
Last Modified:	28 Apr 2025 07:04
URI:	http://repository.upi.edu/id/eprint/132586

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