METODE VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE WITH EXOGENOUS VARIABLE (VARMAX) UNTUK MERAMALKAN IKLIM DI KOTA BANDUNG

Nadya Aprilia Nuraini, - (2023) METODE VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE WITH EXOGENOUS VARIABLE (VARMAX) UNTUK MERAMALKAN IKLIM DI KOTA BANDUNG. S1 thesis, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia.

Abstract

Peramalan merupakan salah satu tujuan dari metode time series digunakan untuk memperkirakan sesuatu di masa yang akan datang. Terdapat berbagai macam metode time series, salah satunya menggunakan Vector Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous Variable (VARMAX). Metode VARMAX merupakan pengembangan dari VARMA yang bisa digunakan untuk mencari model dan menjelaskan hubungan antara variabel endogen dengan variabel eksogen. Pada penelitian ini digunakan data dari bulan Januari 2007 hingga bulan Desember 2021. Adapun variabel endogen dalam penelitian ini yaitu suhu udara, kelembapan udara, dan tekanan udara. Selain itu, iklim tidak hanya dipengaruhi oleh variaben endogen tetapi variabel eksogen juga mempengaruhi perkembangannya yaitu curah hujan. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model VARMAX (3,1,4) merupakan model terbaik yang masing-masing variabelnya menghasilkan nilai MAPE dibawah 10% yaitu pada variabel suhu udara sebesar 0,88169%, variabel kelembapan udara sebesar 4,71247% dan tekanan udara sebesar 0,14601% dan nilai RMSE yang sangat kecil mendekati 0 sehingga termasuk dalam kategori sangat baik untuk melakukan peramalan.

Forecasting is one of the goals of the time series method used to estimate something in the future. There are various kinds of time series methods, one of which uses the Vector Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous Variable (VARMAX). The VARMAX method is a development of VARMA which can be used to find models and explain the relationship between endogenous and exogenous variables. In this study, data was used from January 2007 to December 2021. The endogenous variables in this study were air temperature, air humidity, and air pressure. In addition, climate is not only influenced by endogenous variables but exogenous variables also affect its development, namely rainfall. The results of the analysis show that the VARMAX model (3,1,4) is the best model in which each variable produces a MAPE value below 10%, namely the air temperature variable is 0.88169%, the air humidity variable is 4.71247% and the air pressure is 0.14601% and a very small RMSE value close to 0, so that is included in the very good category for forecasting.

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Official URL: http://repository.upi.edu/
Item Type: Thesis (S1)
Additional Information: ID SINTA Dosen Pembimbing Entit Puspita: 5986409 Fitriani Agustina: 5981275
Uncontrolled Keywords: Runtun Waktu; Endogen; Eksogen; Peramalan; VARMAX Time Series; Endogenous; Exogenous, Forecasting; VARMAX
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GA Mathematical geography. Cartography
Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: Fakultas Pendidikan Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam > Program Studi Matematika - S1 > Program Studi Matematika (non kependidikan)
Depositing User: Nadya Aprilia Nuraini
Date Deposited: 03 Sep 2023 20:15
Last Modified: 03 Sep 2023 20:15
URI: http://repository.upi.edu/id/eprint/101306

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