Dhaneswara Luthfiandari Prastowo, - (2023) IMPLEMENTASI METODE GREY-MARKOV DALAM MERAMALKAN BANYAKNYA EMISI GAS RUMAH KACA DI INDONESIA. S1 thesis, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia.
![[img]](http://repository.upi.edu/style/images/fileicons/text.png) |
Text
S_MAT_1905523_Tittle.pdf Download (627kB) |
|
Text
S_MAT_1905523_Chapter1.pdf Download (203kB) |
|
Text
S_MAT_1905523_Chapter2.pdf Restricted to Staf Perpustakaan Download (411kB) |
|
Text
S_MAT_1905523_Chapter3.pdf Download (227kB) |
|
Text
S_MAT_1905523_Chapter4.pdf Restricted to Staf Perpustakaan Download (670kB) |
|
Text
S_MAT_1905523_Chapter5.pdf Download (84kB) |
|
Text
S_MAT_1905523_Appendix.pdf Restricted to Staf Perpustakaan Download (580kB) |
Abstract
Pelepasan gas-gas rumah kaca ke atmosfer dapat menciptakan efek rumah kaca menyebabkan pemanasan global. Efek ini menyebabkan menipisnya lapisan penahan panas (ozon) di atmosfer dan menyebabkan peningkatan suhu rata-rata bumi. Akibatnya, perubahan iklim terjadi, termasuk peningkatan suhu global, perubahan pola cuaca yang ekstrem, peningkatan permukaan air laut, dan dampak lainnya terhadap lingkungan dan kehidupan di bumi. Menurut data dari WMO, rata-rata suhu permukaan bumi selama bulan Juli 2023 menjadi bulan terpanas sepanjang sejarah manusia. Peramalan emisi gas rumah kaca dapat dilakukan sebagai salah satu cara untuk memprediksi kebutuhan di masa yang akan datang. Berbagai penelitian terus dilakukan dengan tujuan memprediksi kejadian di masa depan dengan akurasi tinggi. Salah satu metode perhitungan yang dapat dilakukan yaitu menggunakan metode Grey-Markov. Metode Grey memberikan akurasi tinggi ketika diterapkan pada data pendek (terbatas) dengan sifat peramalan jangka pendek yang memberikan hasil peramalan yang baik dan akurat. Sedangkan Metode Grey-Markov dapat mengurangi fluktuasi acak data yang mempengaruhi ketepatan peramalan dan mengembangkan ruang lingkup metode peramalan grey. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa hasil akurasi peramalan metode Grey (1,1) dan Grey-Markov (1,1) menggunakan MAPE untuk variabel GRK, energi, IPPU, pertanian, FOLU, dan limbah sangat akurat, sedangkan hasil peramalan variabel kebakaran hutan tidak akurat. Kemudian hasil akurasi menggunakan RMSE pada metode Grey (1,1) lebih kecil dibandingkan pada metode Grey-Markov (1,1). Releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere can create a greenhouse effect, leading to global warming. This effect causes depletion of the atmosphere's heat-retaining layer (ozone) and increases the Earth's average temperature. As a result, climate change occurs, including increased global temperatures, changes in extreme weather patterns, rising sea levels, and other impacts on the environment and life on Earth. According to data from the WMO, the Earth's average surface temperature during July 2023 became the hottest month in human history. Forecasting greenhouse gas emissions can be done as a way to predict future needs. Various studies continue to be conducted to predict future events with high accuracy. One of the calculation methods that can be done is using the Grey¬-Markov method. When applied to short (limited) data, the Grey method provides high accuracy with short-term forecasting properties that provide good and accurate results. The Grey-Markov Method can reduce random fluctuations in data that affect forecasting accuracy and expand the scope of grey forecasting methods. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy results of the Grey (1,1) and Grey-Markov (1,1) methods using MAPE for GHG, energy, IPPU, agriculture, FOLU, and waste variables were very accurate. In contrast, the results of forecasting forest fire variables were inaccurate. Then, the accuracy results using RMSE in the Grey (1,1) method are smaller than in the Grey-Markov (1,1) method.
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Grey, Grey-Markov, Gas Rumah Kaca, Bumi, MAPE, RMSE Grey, Grey-Markov, Greenhouse Gas, Earth, MAPE, RMSE |
| Subjects: | L Education > L Education (General) Q Science > QA Mathematics |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Pendidikan Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam > Jurusan Pendidikan Matematika > Program Studi Matematika (non kependidikan) |
| Depositing User: | Dhaneswara Luthfiandari Prastowo |
| Date Deposited: | 01 Sep 2023 06:25 |
| Last Modified: | 01 Sep 2023 06:25 |
| URI: | http://repository.upi.edu/id/eprint/101134 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |