eprintid: 143414 rev_number: 24 eprint_status: archive userid: 220429 dir: disk0/00/14/34/14 datestamp: 2025-10-15 14:28:54 lastmod: 2025-10-15 14:28:54 status_changed: 2025-10-15 14:28:54 type: thesis metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Randy Saputra, - creators_name: Disman, - creators_name: Navik Istikomah, - creators_nim: NIM2100132 creators_nim: NIDN0009025902 creators_nim: NIDN0010117507 creators_id: randysaputra@upi.edu creators_id: disman@upi.edu creators_id: navik.istikomah@upi.edu contributors_type: http://www.loc.gov/loc.terms/relators/THS contributors_type: http://www.loc.gov/loc.terms/relators/THS contributors_name: Disman, - contributors_name: Navik Istikomah, - contributors_nidn: NIDN0009025902 contributors_nidn: NIDN0010117507 contributors_id: disman@upi.edu contributors_id: navik.istikomah@upi.edu title: PENGARUH EKSPOR DAN IMPOR TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR PERIODE TAHUN 2012.1 – 2024.12 DENGAN PENDEKATAN ECM ispublished: pub subjects: HA subjects: HB subjects: HC subjects: HF subjects: HJ divisions: PEKON full_text_status: restricted keywords: Nilai Tukar, Ekspor, Impor, Inflasi Exchange rate, Exports, Imports, Inflation note: https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=id&user=NzpXIn0AAAAJ ID SINTA Dosen Pembimbing: Disman: 5991816 Navik Istikomah: 6668198 abstract: Penelitian ini dilatarbelakangi oleh fenomena depresiasi nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat selama periode tahun 2012.1 – 2024.12, yang jika tidak terkendali dapat menimbulkan ketidakstabilan ekonomi makro. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menganalisis pengaruh ekspor dan impor terhadap nilai tukar Rp/$ dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek serta menguji teori Purchasing Power Parity yang dikemukakan oleh Gustav Cassel. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan metode eksplanatori dan teknik analisis data Error Correction Model (ECM). Data yang digunakan mencakup nilai ekspor Indonesia, nilai impor Indonesia, tingkat inflasi Indonesia, dan nilai tukar Rp/$ periode tahun 2012.1 – 2024.12 yang diperoleh melalui dokumentasi dari Kementerian Perdagangan, Badan Pusat Statistik, dan Bank Indonesia. Variabel inflasi digunakan sebagai variabel kontrol dalam model analisis. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang, ekspor berpengaruh negatif terhadap nilai tukar, sementara impor berpengaruh positif terhadap nilai tukar, sedangkan inflasi yang dijadikan sebagai variabel kontrol dalam penelitian ini berpengaruh positif terhadap nilai tukar. Temuan ini berbeda dengan teori PPP yang mengasumsikan ekspor memperkuat dan impor melemahkan nilai tukar. Perbedaan ini mencerminkan karakteristik perekonomian Indonesia, di mana peningkatan ekspor sering diikuti kenaikan impor bahan baku dan barang modal, sehingga tidak secara langsung memperkuat rupiah. Adapun dalam jangka pendek, variabel ekspor, impor, dan inflasi tidak berpengaruh terhadap nilai tukar. This research was motivated by the phenomenon of the depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah against the US dollar during the period 2012.1–2024.12, which, if left uncontrolled, could lead to macroeconomic instability. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effects of exports and imports on the Rp/USD exchange rate in both the long run and the short run, as well as to test the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory proposed by Gustav Cassel. This study employed a quantitative approach with an explanatory method and data analysis using the Error Correction Model (ECM). The data consisted of Indonesia’s export value, import value, inflation rate, and Rp/USD exchange rate for the period 2012.1–2024.12, obtained from the Ministry of Trade, Statistics Indonesia (BPS), and Bank Indonesia. Inflation was used as a control variable in the model. The results showed that in the long run, exports had a negative effect on the exchange rate, imports had a positive effect on the exchange rate, and inflation as a control variable also had a positive effect on the exchange rate. These findings differed from the PPP theory, which assumes that exports strengthen and imports weaken the domestic currency. This discrepancy reflected the characteristics of the Indonesian economy, where an increase in exports was often followed by higher imports of raw materials and capital goods, thereby not directly strengthening the rupiah. In the short run, exports, imports, and inflation had no significant effect on the exchange rate. date: 2025-08-12 date_type: published institution: Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia department: KODEPRODI87203#Pendidikan_Ekonomi_S1 thesis_type: other thesis_name: other official_url: https://repository.upi.edu/ related_url_url: https://perpustakaan.upi.edu related_url_type: org citation: Randy Saputra, - and Disman, - and Navik Istikomah, - (2025) PENGARUH EKSPOR DAN IMPOR TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR PERIODE TAHUN 2012.1 – 2024.12 DENGAN PENDEKATAN ECM. S1 thesis, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia. document_url: http://repository.upi.edu/143414/1/S_PEK_2100132_Title.pdf document_url: http://repository.upi.edu/143414/2/S_PEK_2100132_Chapter1.pdf document_url: http://repository.upi.edu/143414/3/S_PEK_2100132_Chapter2.pdf document_url: http://repository.upi.edu/143414/4/S_PEK_2100132_Chapter3.pdf document_url: http://repository.upi.edu/143414/5/S_PEK_2100132_Chapter4.pdf document_url: http://repository.upi.edu/143414/6/S_PEK_2100132_Chapter5.pdf document_url: http://repository.upi.edu/143414/7/S_PEK_2100132_Appendix.pdf