PENERAPAN MODEL INTERVENSI DALAM PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG PESAWAT DI BANDARA I GUSTI NGURAH RAI

Sulis Agustina Rahayu, - (2022) PENERAPAN MODEL INTERVENSI DALAM PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG PESAWAT DI BANDARA I GUSTI NGURAH RAI. S1 thesis, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia.

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Official URL: http://repository.upi.edu

Abstract

Peramalan merupakan suatu kegiatan memperkirakan apa yang akan terjadi di masa yang akan datang. Peramalan dilakukan agar dapat menimbang kegiatan di masa yang akan datang. Dalam beberapa kasus, data yang digunakan untuk melakukan peramalan tidak selalu baik. Ada beberapa data yang secara tiba-tiba mengalami lonjakan ataupun penurunan yang drastis karena adanya kejadian tidak terduga. Seperti halnya kejadian pandemi Covid-19 yang mengakibatkan data jumlah penumpang pesawat di bandara I Gusti Ngurah Rai mengalami penurunan. Akibat adanya kejadian tidak terduga tersebut maka pemodelan dan peramalan jumlah penumpang pesawat di bandara I Gusti Ngurah Rai membutuhkan metoda yang dapat menangkap efek dari kejadian tersebut, salah satunya model intervensi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model intervensi terbaik adalah SARIMA (1,0,0)(0,0,2)12(1,3,0) dengan nilai MAPE 16,58104. Dari model tersebut didapatkan hasil peramalan jumlah penumpang pesawat di Bandara I Gusti Ngurah Rai relatif mengalami peningkatan sampai bulan Agustus 2022, kemudian mengalami penurunan sampai bulan Januari 2023. Hal ini disebabkan oleh proses adaptasi masyarakat pasca pandemi Covid-19. Forecasting is an activity to predict what will happen in the future. Forecasting is done in order to weigh the activities in the future. In some cases, the data used for forecasting is not always good. There are some data that suddenly experience a drastic spike or decrease due to unexpected events. As with the Covid-19 pandemic, which resulted in data on the number of airplane passengers at I Gusti Ngurah Rai airport experiencing a decline. As a result of these unexpected events, modeling and forecasting the number of aircraft passengers at I Gusti Ngurah Rai airport requires a method that can capture the effects of these events, one of which is the intervention model. The results showed that the best intervention model was SARIMA (1,0,0)(0,0,2)12(1,3,0) with a MAPE value of 16,58104. From this model, the results of forecasting the number of airplane passengers at I Gusti Ngurah Rai Airport have relatively increased until August 2022, then decreased until January 2023. This is due to the community's adaptation process after the Covid-19 pandemic.

Item Type: Thesis (S1)
Uncontrolled Keywords: SARIMA, intervensi, jumlah penumpang, Covid-19
Subjects: L Education > L Education (General)
Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: Fakultas Pendidikan Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam > Jurusan Pendidikan Matematika > Program Studi Matematika (non kependidikan)
Depositing User: Sulis Agustina Rahayu
Date Deposited: 23 Sep 2022 09:16
Last Modified: 23 Sep 2022 09:16
URI: http://repository.upi.edu/id/eprint/82383

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