PERAMALAN MORTALITA MENGGUNAKAN METODE LEE-CARTER

Nursaadah, Ima (2016) PERAMALAN MORTALITA MENGGUNAKAN METODE LEE-CARTER. S1 thesis, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia.

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Official URL: http://repository.upi.edu

Abstract

Skripsi ini membahas mengenai aplikasi Model Lee-Carter untuk peramalan laju mortalita di Australia. Data yang digunakan adalah data peluang mortalita Australia tahun 1921-2008, dimana usia yang digunakan adalah 0-109 tahun. Central death rates m_(x,t) diasumsikan berbentuk linear dan eksponensial. Selanjutnya peluang mortalita diestimasi menggunakan Singular Value Deomposition (SVD) dan dibentuk kembali menjadi sebuah tabel mortalita Model Lee-Carter. Selanjutnya, akan diramalkan indeks kematian menggunakan ARIMA (0,1,1) untuk tahun 2009-2011. Dengan asumsi a_x dan b_x konstan, akan dibentuk tabel mortalita tahun 2009-2011. Hasil dari peramalan tabel mortalita tahun 2009-2011 memberikan hasil peramalan yang baik. Diperoleh pula bahwa asumsi eksponensial untuk central death rates memberikan error yang lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan asumsi linear. --- This paper discusses about the application of the Lee-Carter Model to forecasting mortality rates in Australia. These rates are available for the periode that goes from 1921-2008, which using 0-109 ages. Central death rates assumed has linear and exponensial form. The probability of mortallity is estimated using The Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and rebuilt to a mortality table Lee-carter model. Next, ARIMA (0,1,1) used for forecast the mortality indeks for the time periode that goes from 2009-2011 in order to project. Assuming both of a_x and b_x are constant. Results of forecasting mortality tables for 2009-2011 shows that exponential assumption for central death rates better than the linear assumption.

Item Type: Skripsi,Tesis,Disertasi (S1)
Additional Information: No Panggil : S MAT NUR p-2016; Pembimbing : I. : Entit Puspita II. : H. Rini Marwati
Uncontrolled Keywords: mortalita, central death rates, peramalan, Lee-Carter, mortality, forecasting .
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: Fakultas Pendidikan Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam > Jurusan Pendidikan Matematika > Program Studi Matematika (non kependidikan)
Depositing User: Mr mhsinf 2017
Date Deposited: 16 Oct 2017 01:16
Last Modified: 16 Oct 2017 01:16
URI: http://repository.upi.edu/id/eprint/27334

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