Fatya Diega Shafira, - and Disman, - and Yana Rohmana, - (2025) ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP TINGKAT KRIMINALITAS DI INDONESIA TAHUN 2018-2023. S1 thesis, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia.
Abstract
Kriminalitas merupakan fenomena sosial yang dipengaruhi oleh kondisi ekonomi dan karakteristik sosial suatu wilayah. Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh faktor- faktor makroekonomi terhadap tingkat kriminalitas di 34 provinsi Indonesia pada periode 2018–2023. Variabel yang diteliti meliputi tingkat kemiskinan, tingkat pengangguran terbuka, PDRB per kapita, ketimpangan pendapatan (rasio Gini), kepadatan penduduk, dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM). Analisis dilakukan menggunakan System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) two-step dengan koreksi Windmeijer untuk mengatasi endogenitas dan heteroskedastisitas. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tingkat kriminalitas tahun sebelumnya dan kemiskinan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kriminalitas, sedangkan pengangguran, ketimpangan pendapatan, kepadatan penduduk, dan PDRB per kapita tidak signifikan. IPM berpengaruh positif dan signifikan, meskipun arah hubungannya berlawanan dengan hipotesis awal. Temuan ini menegaskan perlunya kebijakan pengendalian kriminalitas yang berkelanjutan, perhatian terhadap faktor kemiskinan, serta penguatan sistem pelaporan dan pengawasan di wilayah dengan kualitas hidup lebih tinggi. Crime is a social phenomenon influenced by economic conditions and social characteristics of a region. This study analyzes the effect of macroeconomic factors on crime rates across 34 provinces in Indonesia during 2018–2023. The variables examined include poverty rate, open unemployment rate, regional GDP per capita, income inequality (Gini ratio), population density, and the Human Development Index (HDI). The analysis employs a two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) with Windmeijer correction to address endogeneity and heteroskedasticity. The results show that lagged crime rates and poverty have a positive and significant effect on crime, whereas unemployment, income inequality, population density, and GDP per capita are not significant. HDI has a positive and significant effect, despite being contrary to the initial hypothesis. These findings highlight the need for sustainable crime control policies, targeted poverty reduction programs, and strengthened reporting and monitoring systems in regions with higher quality of life.
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| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Google Scholar : https://bit.ly/433g9uW ID SINTA DOSEN PEMBIMBING: DISMAN : 5991816 YANA ROHMANA : 5993436 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Kriminalitas, GMM, Kemiskinan, IPM, PDRB per kapita, Ketimpangan pendapatan, Kepadatan penduduk, Indonesia Crime, GMM, Poverty, HDI, GDP per capita, Income Inequality, Population Density, Indonesia |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences > HN Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform K Law > K Law (General) |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Pendidikan Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Pendidikan Ekonomi |
| Depositing User: | Fatya Diega Shafira |
| Date Deposited: | 30 Oct 2025 02:53 |
| Last Modified: | 30 Oct 2025 02:53 |
| URI: | http://repository.upi.edu/id/eprint/144161 |
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