SIMULASI DEMAND FORECAST FASHION OLAHRAGA DENGAN HOLT-WINTERS DAMPED TREND DAN DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAMPED TREND

Syifa Alika Virgineta, - and Aam Hamdani, - and Vina Dwiyanti, - (2025) SIMULASI DEMAND FORECAST FASHION OLAHRAGA DENGAN HOLT-WINTERS DAMPED TREND DAN DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAMPED TREND. S1 thesis, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia.

Abstract

PT XYZ menghadapi tantangan dalam penyesuaian sumber daya manusia untuk mencapai target produksi. Ketidakpastian jumlah demand produk menyebabkan karyawan sewing sering melakukan lembur untuk mengatasi lonjakan permintaan. Penelitian ini bertujuan melakukan simulasi demand forecasting untuk memprediksi volume permintaan di masa mendatang. Pendekatan kuantitatif komparatif digunakan dengan membandingkan metode Holt-Winters Multiplicative Damped Trend dan Double Exponential Smoothing Damped Trend. Data yang digunakan berupa penjualan produk DH Jersey, Sport Jersey dan Jersey Polo selama periode Januari 2022 hingga Desember 2024. Validasi dilakukan menggunakan perhitungan error MAPE, MSE, dan MAD. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa metode Holt-Winters Multiplicative Damped Trend secara konsisten menghasilkan nilai error yang lebih rendah dibandingkan Double Exponential Smoothing Damped Trend pada produk DH Jersey, Sport Jersey dan Jersey Polo yang diteliti, menjadikan metode Holt-Winters Multiplicative Damped sebagai rekomendasi utama untuk diterapkan pada PT XYZ. Temuan ini diharapkan dapat mendukung perusahaan dalam pengambilan keputusan perencanaan sumber daya manusia yang lebih optimal untuk proses produksi. PT XYZ faces challenges in adjusting human resources to achieve production targets. Uncertainty in product demand causes sewing employees to frequently work overtime to cope with surges in demand. This study aims to simulate demand forecasting to predict future demand volumes. A comparative quantitative approach is used by comparing the Holt-Winters Multiplicative Damped Trend and Double Exponential Smoothing Damped Trend methods. The data used consists of sales of DH Jersey, Sport Jersey, and Polo Jersey products from January 2022 to December 2024. Validation was conducted using MAPE, MSE, and MAD error calculations. The analysis results show that the Holt-Winters Multiplicative Damped Trend method consistently produces lower error values compared to the Double Exponential Smoothing Damped Trend method for the DH Jersey, Sport Jersey, and Polo Jersey products studied, making the Holt-Winters Multiplicative Damped method the primary recommendation for implementation at PT XYZ. These findings are expected to support the company in making more optimal human resource planning decisions for the production process.

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Item Type:	Thesis (S1)
Additional Information:	https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=list_works&hl=en&user=Vw-WpFEAAAAJ ID SINTA Dosen Pembimbing: Aam Hamdani: 5993854 Vina Dwiyanti: 6745842
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Double Exponential Smoothing, Holt-Winters, Pakaian Olahraga, Peramalan. Double Exponential Smoothing, Forecasting, Holt-Winters, Sportswear.
Subjects:	L Education > L Education (General) T Technology > T Technology (General)
Divisions:	Fakultas Pendidikan Teknik dan Industri > Teknik Logistik - S1
Depositing User:	Syifa Alika Virgineta
Date Deposited:	07 Oct 2025 02:03
Last Modified:	07 Oct 2025 02:03
URI:	http://repository.upi.edu/id/eprint/142318

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