ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PENGANGGURAN: Studi Kasus Provinsi-Provinsi di Indonesia Periode 2015-2023

Hayatin Nufus, - and Ikaputera Waspada, - and Yana Rohmana, - (2025) ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PENGANGGURAN: Studi Kasus Provinsi-Provinsi di Indonesia Periode 2015-2023. S1 thesis, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia.

Abstract

Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi, upah minimum, investasi, dan pendidikan terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka di 34 provinsi Indonesia periode 2015–2023 menggunakan metode Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) dengan pendekatan Pooled Mean Group (PMG). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pengaruh masing-masing variabel berbeda antara jangka pendek dan jangka panjang, mencerminkan adanya perbedaan kecepatan dan mekanisme penyesuaian di pasar tenaga kerja. Dalam jangka panjang, seluruh variabel berpengaruh signifikan, di mana pertumbuhan ekonomi, investasi, dan pendidikan berpengaruh positif terhadap pengangguran, sedangkan upah minimum berpengaruh negatif. Sementara itu, dalam jangka pendek, pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan, pendidikan berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan, sedangkan upah minimum dan investasi tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Temuan ini menegaskan pentingnya kebijakan ketenagakerjaan yang mempertimbangkan perbedaan dampak dalam jangka waktu yang berbeda untuk menciptakan pasar kerja yang inklusif dan berkelanjutan. This study analyzes the effects of economic growth, minimum wage, investment, and education on the open unemployment rate across 34 provinces in Indonesia for the period 2015–2023, using the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method with the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach. The findings reveal that the impacts of each variable differ between the short term and the long term, reflecting variations in the speed and mechanisms of labor market adjustment. In the long term, all variables show significant effects, where economic growth, investment, and education positively influence unemployment, while the minimum wage has a negative effect. In the short term, economic growth has a positive and significant effect, education has a negative and significant effect, while minimum wage and investment show no significant effects. These results highlight the importance of labor market policies that consider differences in impact over different time periods to create an inclusive and sustainable labor market.

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Item Type:	Thesis (S1)
Additional Information:	https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=new_profile&hl=id ID SINTA Dosen Pembimbing: Ikaputera Waspada: 5993422 Yana Rohmana: 5993436
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Pengangguran Terbuka, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Upah Minimum, Investasi, Pendidikan, Panel ARDL. Open Unemployment, Economic Growth, Minimum Wage, Investment, Education, Panel ARDL.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory L Education > L Education (General)
Divisions:	Fakultas Pendidikan Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Pendidikan Ekonomi
Depositing User:	Hayatin Nufus
Date Deposited:	18 Sep 2025 08:27
Last Modified:	18 Sep 2025 08:27
URI:	http://repository.upi.edu/id/eprint/139777

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