PENGARUH BI RATE, M2, DAN KURS USD KE IDR TERHADAP INFLASI DI INDONESIA: Pendekatan Bootstrap Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Bootstrap ARDL)

Bagas Ghulam Maulana, - and Fitriani Agustina, - and Dadan Dasari, - (2025) PENGARUH BI RATE, M2, DAN KURS USD KE IDR TERHADAP INFLASI DI INDONESIA: Pendekatan Bootstrap Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Bootstrap ARDL). S1 thesis, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia.

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh BI Rate, jumlah uang beredar secara luas (M2), dan kurs USD ke IDR terhadap inflasi di Indonesia dengan menggunakan pendekatan Bootstrap Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Bootstrap ARDL). Metode ini dipilih karena mampu memberikan estimasi yang lebih akurat pada data time series dengan ukuran sampel terbatas. Data yang digunakan merupakan data bulanan dari Januari 2015 sampai Maret 2025. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model terbaik untuk ARDL adalah model dimana lag untuk inflasi, M2, BI Rate, dan kurs USD ke IDR (1,0,0,0). Model yang digunakan adalah model jangka pendek karena hasil uji kointegrasi bootstrap gagal menolak hipotesis nol yang artinya tidak ada hubungan jangka panjang dalam model. Berdasarkan nilai MAPE, model Bootstrap ARDL lebih baik dari model ARDL biasa dengan nilai MAPE Bootstrap ARDL yang lebih kecil yaitu sebesar 27,07%. Variabel BI rate, M2, dan kurs USD ke IDR hanya memiliki pengaruh jangka pendek terhadap inflasi di Indonesia. Pengaruh variabel BI rate terhadap inflasi di Indonesia bertolak belakang dengan teori kebijakan moneter konvensional, di mana kenaikan suku bunga berdampak pada penurunan laju inflasi. Sementara itu, pengaruh variabel M2 dan kurs USD ke IDR terhadap inflasi di Indonesia juga sesuai dengan teori dan temuan empiris sebelumnya, yaitu kenaikan M2 dan depresiasi nilai tukar naik cenderung mendorong peningkatan inflasi. This undergraduate thesis aims to examine the effects of the BI Rate, broad money supply (M2), and the USD to IDR exchange rate on inflation in Indonesia using the Bootstrap Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Bootstrap ARDL) approach. This method is selected due to its ability to produce more accurate estimates for time series data with limited sample sizes. The study utilizes monthly data spanning from January 2015 to March 2025. The results indicate that the optimal ARDL model is specified with lag lengths of (1,0,0,0) for inflation, M2, BI Rate, and the USD to IDR exchange rate, respectively. This model was selected based on the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value of -572.77. The analysis focuses on short-run dynamics, as the bootstrap cointegration test failed to reject the null hypothesis of no long-run relationship. Based on the MAPE value, the Bootstrap ARDL model performs better than the conventional ARDL model, with a lower MAPE of 27.07%. The variables BI Rate, M2, and the USD to IDR exchange rate only have short-term effects on inflation in Indonesia. The influence of the BI Rate on inflation in Indonesia is contrary to conventional monetary policy theory, in which an increase in interest rates is expected to reduce the inflation rate. Meanwhile, the effects of M2 and the USD to IDR exchange rate on inflation in Indonesia are consistent with existing theory and previous empirical findings, where an increase in M2 and a depreciation of the exchange rate tend to drive inflation higher.

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Item Type:	Thesis (S1)
Additional Information:	ID SINTA Dosen Pembimbing: Fitriani Agustina: 5981275 Dadan Dasari: 6000619
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Inflasi, BI Rate, M2, Kurs USD ke IDR, Bootstrap ARDL, Stasioner, Kointegrasi. Inflation, BI Rate, M2, USD to IDR Exchange Rate, Bootstrap ARDL, Stationarity, Cointegration.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions:	Fakultas Pendidikan Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam > Program Studi Matematika - S1 > Program Studi Matematika (non kependidikan)
Depositing User:	Bagas Ghulam Maulana
Date Deposited:	15 Sep 2025 04:30
Last Modified:	15 Sep 2025 04:30
URI:	http://repository.upi.edu/id/eprint/139126

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