Billal Soebhi Eryawan, - (2025) OPTIMASI FREKUENSI VOYAGE KAPAL PERINTIS BERDASARKAN PROYEKSI LOAD FACTOR PENUMPANG DAN BARANG PADA TRAYEK R-94. S1 thesis, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia.
Abstract
Indonesia sebagai negara kepulauan terbesar di dunia menghadapi tantangan dalam menjamin konektivitas antarpulau, khususnya di wilayah tertinggal, terpencil, terluar (3T). Salah satu upaya yang dilakukan adalah melalui layanan kapal perintis. KM Sabuk Nusantara 58 merupakan kapal yang melayani Trayek R-94. Meskipun memiliki kapasitas 285 penumpang dan 400 ton barang, data observasi menunjukkan pemanfaatan yang belum optimal. Pada periode voyage 20 hingga 26 tahun 2024, hanya tercatat 336 penumpang dan 72 ton barang yang naik dari Pelabuhan Jayapura, Ketimpangan kapasitas dan keterisian mengindikasikan inefisiensi operasional yang perlu dikaji lebih dalam, oleh sebab itu Penelitian ini bertujuan mengoptimalkan frekuensi voyage dengan menghitung nilai load factor penumpang dan barang, serta memproyeksikan jumlah permintaan di masa depan. Proyeksi dilakukan menggunakan tiga metode peramalan: Regresi Linier Sederhana, Moving Average, dan Single Exponential Smoothing. Akurasi tiap metode diukur menggunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Penentuan frekuensi voyage didasarkan pada hasil proyeksi dan load factor lintasan dengan beban tertinggi, yaitu Serui – Waren, yang menjadi representasi kebutuhan maksimum trayek R-94. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa skenario load factor 85% merupakan pilihan paling optimal, dengan kebutuhan 25 voyage pada 2025 dan 29 voyage pada 2026. Simulasi pergantian dilakukan dengan KM Sabuk Nusantara 100, simulasi menunjukkan efisiensi lebih tinggi, dengan kebutuhan voyage yang menurun menjadi 22 hingga 13 voyage pada 2025 dan 25 hingga 18 voyage pada 2026. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa pendekatan berbasis proyeksi permintaan dan pemilihan armada yang sesuai menjadi strategi penting dalam meningkatkan efisiensi dan keberlanjutan layanan kapal perintis, khususnya pada Trayek R-94. Indonesia, as the largest archipelagic country in the world, faces significant challenges in ensuring inter-island connectivity, particularly in remote, outermost, and underdeveloped regions (3T). One of the solutions implemented is the operation of pioneer ships. KM Sabuk Nusantara 58 serves Route R-94 and has a capacity of 285 passengers and 400 tons of cargo. However, observational data indicates suboptimal utilization. During voyages 20 to 26 in 2024, only 336 passengers and 72 tons of cargo boarded from Jayapura Port. This imbalance between capacity and occupancy suggests operational inefficiencies that require further examination. This study aims to optimize voyage frequency by calculating the load factor for both passengers and cargo, as well as projecting future demand. Forecasting was carried out using three methods: Simple Linear Regression, Moving Average, and Single Exponential Smoothing. The accuracy of each method was assessed using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Voyage frequency was determined based on projections and the load factor of the highest-demand route, Serui–Waren, which represents the peak demand of Route R-94. The analysis found that the 85% load factor scenario is the most optimal, requiring 25 voyages in 2025 and 29 in 2026, both within the ship’s annual operational capacity. A simulation using a higher-capacity vessel, KM Sabuk Nusantara 100, showed greater efficiency, reducing voyage requirements to 22–13 in 2025 and 25–18 in 2026. These findings highlight that a demand-based projection approach combined with appropriate vessel selection is a key strategy for improving the efficiency and sustainability of pioneer ship services, particularly on Route R-94.
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| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=QndmwN8AAAAJ&hl=en ID SINTA Dosen Pembimbing Ma'ruf : 6745872 Melia Handayani : 6787010 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Kapal Perintis, Trayek R-94, Load factor, Proyeksi Permintaan, Optimasi Frekuensi Voyage Pioneer Vessel, Route R-94, Load factor, Demand Projection, Voyage Frequency Optimization |
| Subjects: | L Education > L Education (General) V Naval Science > V Naval Science (General) |
| Divisions: | UPI Kampus Serang > S1 Logistik Kelautan |
| Depositing User: | Billal Soehi Eryawan |
| Date Deposited: | 19 Sep 2025 03:56 |
| Last Modified: | 19 Sep 2025 03:56 |
| URI: | http://repository.upi.edu/id/eprint/138039 |
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