PENGARUH KURS VALUTA ASING DAN TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP EKSPOR NONMIGAS DI INDONESIA

    An Nisa Alia Fitri, - and Eeng Ahman, - and Siti Parhah, - (2025) PENGARUH KURS VALUTA ASING DAN TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP EKSPOR NONMIGAS DI INDONESIA. S1 thesis, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia.

    Abstract

    Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh kurs valuta asing dan tingkat suku bunga terhadap volume ekspor nonmigas di Indonesia periode 2011–2024. Metode yang digunakan adalah pendekatan kuantitatif dengan model Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) untuk melihat hubungan jangka pendek. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kurs valuta asing berpengaruh negatif dalam jangka pendek, namun positif dan signifikan dalam jangka panjang terhadap ekspor nonmigas, sesuai dengan teori Kurva J. Sementara itu, tingkat suku bunga memiliki pengaruh negatif signifikan baik dalam jangka pendek maupun panjang. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa kenaikan suku bunga dapat menurunkan daya saing ekspor Indonesia sesuai dengan teori Mundell-Fleming. Penelitian ini memberikan implikasi bahwa stabilitas nilai tukar dan pengelolaan suku bunga yang tepat diperlukan untuk mendukung kinerja ekspor nonmigas secara berkelanjutan. This study aims to analyze the influence of foreign exchange rates and interest rates on the volume of non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia during the period 2011–2024. The research adopts a quantitative approach using the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model to examine short-term relationships. The results indicate that foreign exchange rates have a negative effect in the short term but a positive and significant effect in the long term on non-oil and gas exports, in line with the J-Curve theory. Meanwhile, interest rates have a significant negative effect in both the short and long term, suggesting that rising interest rates reduce Indonesia's export competitiveness, as explained by the Mundell-Fleming theory. This study implies that exchange rate stability and appropriate interest rate management are crucial to sustaining the performance of non-oil and gas exports.

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    Official URL: https://repository.upi.edu/
    Item Type: Thesis (S1)
    Additional Information: https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=T5OOj3UAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&gmla=AH8HC4wJnbzhROWEN-RzTObzrDnQA2IgD-v46aEMGtEyKDoJIzrs_19CmF33vaezhv2nKb6HRC4IBfSXMZoGsVO- ID SINTA Dosen Pembimbing SITI PARHAH : 5993429 EENG AHMAN : 5991829
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Kurs, Suku Bunga, Ekspor Nonmigas, VAR, Kurva J, Mundell-Fleming Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, Non-Oil and Gas Export, VAR, J-Curve, Mundell-Fleming
    Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
    H Social Sciences > HF Commerce
    L Education > L Education (General)
    Divisions: Fakultas Pendidikan Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Pendidikan Ekonomi
    Depositing User: An Nisa Alia Fitri
    Date Deposited: 18 Jun 2025 04:37
    Last Modified: 18 Jun 2025 04:37
    URI: http://repository.upi.edu/id/eprint/133762

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