Astri Indriyani, - and Lili Somantri, - and Annisa Joviani Astari, - (2025) PREDIKSI PERKEMBANGAN KAWASAN PERMUKIMAN DI KECAMATAN LEMBANG PADA TAHUN 2028 MENGGUNAKAN NEAREST NEIGHBOR ANALYSIS DAN CELLULAR AUTOMATA-LOGISTIC REGRESSION. S1 thesis, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia.
Abstract
Pertumbuhan penduduk dan pembangunan bertambah pesat di Kecamatan Lembang menyebabkan dampak signifikan terhadap perubahan penggunaan tanah dan penurunan jumlah vegetasi. Oleh karena itu, studi ini bertujuan untuk melakukan analisis terhadap: 1) modifikasi penggunaan lahan di Kecamatan Lembang dari tahun 2008 hingga 2023, 2) proyeksi pertumbuhan area hunian, 3) estimasi pola pertumbuhan hunian. Metode yang diterapkan adalah Analisis Tetangga Terdekat untuk mengevaluasi pola serta arah perkembangan di Kecamatan Lembang, dan model Cellular Automata-Logistic Regression yang digunakan untuk memprediksi perubahan penggunaan lahan di Kecamatan Lembang. Hasil penelitian perubahan penggunaan lahan menunjukan perubahan perkebunan menjadi permukiman dengan luas perubahan seluas 292,67 Ha dan perubahan tegalan/ladang menjadi perkebunan seluas 562,57 Ha. Kemudian prediksi perkembangan permukiman pada tahun 2028 bertambah seluas 123,62 Ha atau bertambah sekitar 8% dengan hasil validasi kappa koreksi sebesar 97%. Dari hasil prediksi permukiman tersebut, lalu dilakukan analisis pola sebaran permukiman. Hasil analisis tersebut menunjukan prediksi pola sebaran permukiman tahun 2028 menunjukan nilai Z-Score -8,652370, dimana nilai tersebut lebih dari dari -2,58 yang artinya permukiman membentuk pola mengelompok. Population increase and swift growth in the Lembang District have led to considerable effects on land use alterations and a decline in vegetation. As a result, this research seeks to examine: 1) changes in land use in Lembang District in 2008-2023, 2) predictions of residential area development, 3) predictions of settlement development patterns. The approach applied involves Nearest Neighbor Analysis to examine the trends and pathways of regional growth in Lembang District, along with the Cellular Automata-Logistic Regression model utilized for forecasting shifts in land utilization in Lembang District. Findings from the investigation into land use alterations reveal transformations from agricultural areas to residential zones, with a total change area of 292.67 Ha and changes in dry fields/fields to plantations covering an area of 562.57 Ha. Then the prediction of settlement development in 2028 increased by 123.62 Ha or increased by around 8% with a kappa correction validation result of 97%. Based on the outcomes of the settlement forecast, a study was conducted on the settlement distribution trend. The findings from this study indicate that the anticipated settlement distribution trend for 2028 shows a Z-Score value of -8.652370, where this value is more than -2.58, which means that settlements form a clustered pattern.
![[img]](http://repository.upi.edu/style/images/fileicons/text.png) |
Text
S_SIG_2104811_Title.pdf Download (386kB) |
|
Text
S_SIG_2104811_Chapter1.pdf Download (177kB) |
|
Text
S_SIG_2104811_Chapter2.pdf Restricted to Staf Perpustakaan Download (467kB) |
|
Text
S_SIG_2104811_Chapter3.pdf Download (989kB) |
|
Text
S_SIG_2104811_Chapter4.pdf Restricted to Staf Perpustakaan Download (4MB) |
|
Text
S_SIG_2104811_Chapter5.pdf Download (113kB) |
|
Text
S_SIG_2104811_Appendix.pdf Restricted to Staf Perpustakaan Download (5MB) |
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=list_works&hl=en&user=bQGsbWEAAAAJ ID SINTA Dosen Pembimbing Lili Somantri : 5995390 Annisa Joviani Astari : 6755030 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Kecamatan Lembang, Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan, Prediksi Perkembangan Permukiman, Pola Sebaran Lembang District, Changes in Land Use, Prediction of Settlement Development, Distribution Patterns |
| Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Pendidikan Ilmu Pengetahuan Sosial > Sains Informasi Geografi |
| Depositing User: | Astri Indriyani |
| Date Deposited: | 28 Apr 2025 02:36 |
| Last Modified: | 28 Apr 2025 02:36 |
| URI: | http://repository.upi.edu/id/eprint/132529 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |